Pii: S0360-5442(96)00163-6
نویسنده
چکیده
-Electricity authorities in the UAE have not been successful in developing reliable and accurate models of system peak load. In this study, we develop a time-series-based decisionsupport system that integrates data management, model base management, simulation, graphic display, and statistical analysis to provide near-optimal forecasting models. The model base includes a variety of time-series techniques, such as exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins (B J), and dynamic regression. The system produces short-term forecasts (one year ahead) by analyzing the behavior of monthly peak loads. The performance of the DSS is validated through a comparison with results suggested by econometricians. © 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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